A guided walkthrough of the underlying numbers behind the $8.0M founding round. Where the strategy document and the one-pager publish the headlines, this document shows how each line builds. A members club is the asset; 18 members-only residences pre-sell to fund the build and then run as managed-residence hospitality; the retained ~30% of the operating business (club + residence hospitality) is what the investor owns. Numbers are priced to figures that survive diligence. The bear case still recovers capital via residence collections and returns ~2.9× over the hold.
~$26.1M all-in. The $8.0M equity funds the land, the club build, and club working capital through breakeven, the things residence pre-sales cannot fund. Residence pre-sales fund the residence build. There is no large pre-sale "surplus"; defensible pricing does not produce one.
| Line Item | USD | Group | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land (40 are × ~IDR 1.3B / are) | $3,000,000 | Land | Target acquisition cost, to be locked at LOI. Forward acquisition, not yet secured. |
| Land acquisition costs | $300,000 | Land | BPHTB 5%, notary, legal, HGB perfection. |
| Club construction (2,500 m² × $2,000/m²) | $5,000,000 | Build | Top of the Bali ultra-premium range; bottom-up budget runs lower (~$3.4M), held high for prudence. 1,500-member capacity. |
| Residence construction (5,200 m² × $2,000/m²) | $10,400,000 | Build | 18 members-only units, ultra-luxury fit-out. Funded by residence pre-sales, not equity. |
| Soft costs (design, permits, AMDAL, FF&E, pre-opening) ~12% | $2,600,000 | Soft | Architecture, MEP, entitlement, FF&E, pre-opening. An experienced luxury-brand creative director reduces external ID fees. |
| Sales & marketing (residences) ~5% of gross | $1,160,000 | S&M | Sales gallery, brokerage, render-grade marketing. |
| Contingency 20% | $3,600,000 | Build | On construction + soft costs. Honest buffer for a first luxury build (Bali first-build overruns of 25 to 40% are common). |
| Total project cost | $26,060,000 | Plus construction-period standby-facility interest (~$0.3M base; see the cash-flow model). |
| Source | Amount | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founder capital (deployed + pro-rata) | $750,000 | Founder | $350K already spent on DD, PT Third Spaces / PMA, legal; $400K on the same terms as investors. Alignment. |
| Outside investor equity | $8,000,000 | Equity | ~30% of HoldCo. Single-round close, no follow-on. Pre-money grounded in the club, not the residences. |
| Line Residence pre-sale signing payments (25%) | $5,800,000 | Customer cash | In escrow on signed PPJB. |
| Line Residence milestone and handover payments (75%) | $17,400,000 | Customer cash | 30% at structure (mid-2028) + 30% at fit-out (early 2029) + 15% at handover (Q4 2029), staged PPJB |
| Standby facility (peak; repaid) | ~$3,800,000 | Bridge debt | Covers milestone-timing gaps; repaid from collections before any distribution. |
| Total sources | $31,950,000 | Less ~$2.6M residence transaction tax/CIT → ~$29.4M net. |
| Net sources (after residence tax) | ~$29.4M | From above. |
| (Less) Total project cost | ($26.1M) | From the cost table above. |
| Net working-capital cushion | ~$3.3M | Funds club ramp to breakeven + reserve. No distributable "surplus", the return is the retained club equity. |
Source: management financial model (cost & capital-stack layer). The 40 are freehold site is a forward acquisition gated on clean title diligence, not a secured asset.
Strong unit economics at every tier. Joining fees recover acquisition cost at signing, with CAC payback under 6 months and an LTV:CAC of roughly 11× to 20×. Break-even at ~295 members. Membership dues run ~53% of club revenue. A capped ultra-tier sits above the mass tiers and carries base IRR clear of a 15% hurdle.
| Tier | Joining Fee | Monthly | Cap | LTV:CAC | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Founding Members (monthly locked for life) | $1,500 | $350 | 150 | 11.8x | A marketing asset, not a revenue line, the 150 are social proof for Charter and Regular. ~$630K/yr. |
| Charter Members (monthly locked for life) | $3,500 | $280 | 175 | 12.6x | ~$610K of one-time joining fees across 175 seats; the price lock is on the monthly dues. |
| Regular Members (escalates annually) | $4,500 | $395 | ~635 | 19.6x | Monthly dues at peer median; all-in Y1 $9,240 (join + dues) runs ~29% above the peer all-in median, below Six Senses Place London (~$10K). |
| Founders Reserve (capped ultra-tier) | $25,000 | $1,250 | 40 | n/a | Fills the gap between Charter ($6.9K Y1) and Aman Club ($215K Y1). 4% of capped seats carry ~12% of capped-tier dues ($600K/yr + $1.0M one-time). |
| Remote (online program only) | $0 | $110 | n/a | 5.1x | High-margin (~90%) digital tier. |
| Corporate Team (3 members @ $300 / member / mo) | $5,000 | $1,100 | n/a | n/a | Small-team corporate seat. |
| Corporate Executive (5 members @ $350 / member / mo) | $8,000 | $1,750 | n/a | n/a | Mid-size corporate seat. |
| Enterprise (10 members @ $400 / member / mo) | $15,000 | $4,000 | n/a | n/a | Large corporate seat. |
| Aggregate (base ~830 members) | ~$4.5M/yr recurring dues across the capped tiers + ~$5.3M one-time joining fees (cumulative) | Capped tiers only; Remote/Corporate carries the balance of the ~53% recurring share. Supports base Club EBITDA ~$4.5M and base IRR ~29%. | |||
Source: management financial model (tiers, LTV:CAC 11.8 to 19.6×, breakeven ~295 members). Churn assumed ~1.3% per month run rate (1.5% Y1 then declines as cohort matures). Final pricing to be confirmed against live local benchmarks.
The ~$18.7M pre-money is grounded in the club, not the residences. It is the retained-club enterprise value, stabilized EBITDA at a deliberately conservative 12× multiple, net of the club capital still to deploy. Platform optionality sits on top as upside, not promised value.
| Component | Method | Bear | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilized club EBITDA (Y5) | Bear ~$3.0M / base ~$4.5M / upside ~$5.8M. | ~$3.0M | ~$4.5M | ~$5.8M |
| Exit / valuation multiple | Discount to Soho House take-private (~16×, Jan 2026). 14× reserved for the proven upside case. | 10× | 12× | 14× |
| Implied club enterprise value | On stabilized EBITDA. | ~$30M | ~$54M | ~$81M |
| Less: club capital still to deploy | Equity-funded portion of the club build + working capital not yet in the ground at close. | ($7.0M) | ($7.0M) | ($7.0M) |
| Implied stage / minority / single-asset discount | Output, not input: the round's pricing concedes 41 to 60% of the marked club value, case by case; a single, still-ramping Bali club is less liquid than a portfolio. | (41%) | (60%) | (45%) |
| Implied pre-money valuation | ~$13.5M | ~$18.7M | ~$40.7M | |
| The ask | $8M for ~30% post-money | ~$18.7M pre-money (post ~$26.7M), priced inside the ~$13.5M to ~$40.7M bridge band | ||
Source: management financial model. Soho House & Co take-private, MCR/Apollo, Jan 2026 (~16× EBITDA). PT Hotel Investment Advisory, Risk-Adjusted Bali Hotel Markets (DRAGI), 2026.
Total tax and cross-border leakage is modeled at ~30%, taking the ~29% pre-tax base IRR to a net ~25 to 26%. The components: 11% VAT, Indonesian CIT / final tax on developer sales, possible PPnBM luxury-goods tax on larger residence units, and cross-border distribution leakage, mitigated, but not eliminated, by a Singapore HoldCo over the PT PMA.
| Stage | USD | Effective Rate | Cumulative Leakage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilized club EBITDA, Bali (post VAT) | $4,600,000 | n/a | n/a |
| Less: Indonesian CIT 22% | ($1,012,000) | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| Distributable Indonesian net income | $3,588,000 | n/a | n/a |
| Less: Indonesian WHT to Singapore (DTA 10%) | ($358,800) | 10.0% of dividend | 30.0% |
| Singapore HoldCo received | $3,229,200 | n/a | n/a |
| Singapore tax post foreign tax credit | ~$0 | ~0% | 30.0% |
| Singapore onward dividend (one-tier, no WHT) | $3,229,200 | 0% | ~30.0% |
| Net to investor pool (illustrative) | ~$3,229,200 | ~30% total leakage | n/a |
Source: management tax estimate. Singapore HoldCo over PT PMA designed to meet DTA substance requirements; final structuring to be reviewed with investor's tax counsel during the data-room phase. Residence unit mix to be structured to manage the PPnBM luxury-goods threshold on larger units, counsel to confirm.
Single $8.0M round for ~30% of the HoldCo, no follow-on. The return is ownership of the retained club, realized at a future liquidity event, plus distributions and a partial early capital return from residence collections. Honest, range-bound, pre-tax. 7-year hold.
| Component | Bear | Base | Upside | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity invested (2026) | ($8.0M) | ($8.0M) | ($8.0M) | Single round, ~30% of HoldCo. |
| Waterfall distributions pre-exit (Y3 to Y6): capital return + 8% preferred, then pro-rata | +$6.5M | +$12.0M | +$13.7M | Staged residence collections + club cash through the documented waterfall; joining fees help fund an earlier return. |
| Exit distribution Y7 (~30% of EV + residual cash) | +$17.5M | +$22.3M | +$33.3M | Operating EV bear ~$38M / base ~$68M / upside ~$103M, 10 to 14× on club + residence-hospitality EBITDA ~$3.8 / 5.7 / 7.3M. |
| Total investor cash at Y7 | ~$22.9M | ~$34.4M | ~$47.0M | Cash returned + retained equity value. |
| MOIC / IRR (pre-tax, 7-yr) | ~2.9× / ~18% | ~4.3× / ~29% | ~5.9× / ~37% | Net-of-tax IRR ~3 to 4 pts lower (§04). Base case ~4.3× / ~29% IRR (pre-tax). |
| Exit Multiple | EBITDA Case | Implied Operating EV | MOIC | Anchor / comparable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x EBITDA | Bear (~$3.8M) | ~$38M | ~2.9x | SE-Asian luxury resort range (8 to 12x); conservative floor. |
| 12x EBITDA | Base (~$5.7M) | ~$68M | ~4.3x | Base case, deliberate discount to Soho House. |
| 14x EBITDA | Upside (~$7.3M) | ~$103M | ~5.9x | Reserved for the proven upside, second market open. |
| 14x EBITDA | Base (~$5.7M) | ~$79M | upside sensitivity | Multiple expansion on the base EBITDA case. |
| 16x EBITDA | reference | n/a | n/a | Soho House & Co take-private, MCR/Apollo, Jan 2026, $2.7B. The members-club exit reference; The Line does not claim it. |
| Year | Event | Investor Cash | Cumulative | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Round close · land closes on clean diligence | ($8,000,000) | ($8,000,000) | Single-round commitment; Gate 1 (LOI, title, entitlement) precedes any construction capital. |
| 2027 | Residence pre-sale launch · groundbreaking (gated) | $0 | ($8,000,000) | Signing payments fund draws per the staged schedule; 8% preferred accrues. |
| 2028 | Construction · phased residence build | $0 | ($8,000,000) | 8% preferred accrues; residences built against confirmed sales. |
| 2029 | Club opens (Q1) · residences complete + settle (Q4) | $4,260,000 | ($3,740,000) | Milestone + handover collections complete; facility repaid; capital return + 8% preferred begins Q4. |
| 2030 | Club Y2 · capital return continues | $2,740,000 | ($1,000,000) | Capital return continues from collections + club cash. |
| 2031 | Club Y3 · capital return completes + accrued preferred paid | $3,530,000 | $2,530,000 | Tier-1 capital return completes and the accrued 8% preferred is paid; cumulative investor cash turns positive. |
| 2032 | Club Y4 · distributions from operating EBITDA | $1,510,000 | $4,040,000 | 30% share after operating reserve; operating EBITDA approaching ~$5.7M (club + residence hospitality). |
| 2033 | Club Y5 / hold Y7 · final distribution + realize retained 30% stake at 12x base | $22,340,000 | $26,380,000 | Exit distribution: ~30% of ~$68M operating EV plus residual cash, through the waterfall. Total investor cash ~$34.4M: ~4.3x / ~29%. |
Source: management financial model. Scenario returns reflect each scenario's own club EBITDA × own exit multiple. Timing and the precise capital-return profile are pending a detailed monthly cash-flow model.
The club and the 18 residences are sited on a single 40 are (4,000 m²) HGB freehold parcel in the Seseh-Munggu corridor. The parcel is identified; the LOI is the first use of funds and the first gate. It is a forward acquisition, not yet secured.
| Attribute | Seseh-Munggu 40 are (flagship) |
|---|---|
| Land area | 4,000 m² (40 are) |
| Tenure | HGB freehold, acquired and held via PT PMA |
| Target land cost | $3.0M (~IDR 1.3B / are × 40) |
| Acquisition costs | ~$0.3M (BPHTB 5%, notary, legal, HGB perfection) |
| Zoning | Tourism sub-zone (W), club, F&B, hospitality permitted |
| Max footprint (KDB 50%) | 2,000 m² |
| Max GFA (KLB 2.0×) | 8,000 m² |
| Height cap | 15m (3 to 4 floors) |
| Program GFA | 7,700 m² (96% of envelope): club 2,500 m² + residences 5,200 m² |
| Component | Footprint | Floors | GFA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Line Members Club | 700 m² | 3.5 | 2,500 m² | Five verticals stacked: training, bathhouse + recovery, library + bar, F&B + lounge + workspace, rooftop pool + events. 1,500-member capacity. |
| Line Residences (18 units) | 1,300 m² | 4 | 5,200 m² | 10 pied-à-terre @ 200 m² + 8 family @ 400 m². Members-only ownership covenant; a separate building on the campus, with its own lobby and direct members-only club access a short walk across the grounds. |
| Total GFA | 2,000 m² | n/a | 7,700 m² | 96% of the 8,000 m² envelope at full KDB/KLB. |
| Product | Units | Avg m² | $/m² | $/unit | Gross |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line Residence · Pied-à-Terre | 10 | 200 | $5,200 | $1.04M | $10.4M |
| Line Residence · Family | 8 | 400 | $4,000 | $1.60M | $12.8M |
| Total (base case) | 18 | ~290 avg | ~$4,460 blended | ~$1.29M avg | ~$23.2M |
Bear case (lower-range pricing / partial absorption): ~$17.6M. Upside case (top-of-range branded scarcity, ~$5,100/m²): ~$26.7M. Resale restricted to qualified Line members; HGB tenure (30 + 20 + 30 years) via PT PMA. The September 2025 hospitality construction moratorium across several Bali districts increases scarcity value for a fully-entitled project, a tailwind, provided entitlement is secured cleanly.
Envelope per Perda Provinsi Bali and Badung spatial planning (KDB 50%, KLB 2.0×, 15m). Pricing references: Seseh local villas $1,700 to 2,400/m² (REID 2025); branded beachfront/cliff trophy (Aman, Raffles, Mandarin Oriental Residences) materially above local rates. Final residence pricing subject to broker validation against live comparables.
The residences are not only a one-time financing event. Once built, The Line operates all 18 units as a managed-residence hospitality business, the structure Soho House layers onto its owned residences (Soho Beach House Los Cabos), producing recurring EBITDA that earns the club's operating multiple. All 18 units are enrolled in a default opt-out rental pool.
| Stream | Base assumption | Y5 EBITDA |
|---|---|---|
| Managed rental program (hotel-style) | All 18 units enrolled; ~55% occupancy (pied-à-terre ~$700 ADR, family ~$1,700). Operating costs (~30%) are netted, then the net splits 60/40 on the pied-à-terre and 70/30 on the family units (owner / operator). The ~$1.0M is The Line's net operator share. | ~$1.0M |
| Managed services + service charge | The ~$45/m² building service charge at a margin, plus maintenance and concierge. No overlap with the line above: rental-period housekeeping & F&B are netted there, and member dining sits in the club P&L. | ~$0.2M |
| Residence hospitality EBITDA (Y5) | Bear ~$0.8M (softer ADR / occupancy) · Upside ~$1.6M. | ~$1.2M |
Residence buyers are underwritten on total return, net rental yield plus capital appreciation, not cash yield alone. The larger family units carry a more owner-favorable 70/30 split so both formats clear the 12 to 17% target band.
| Per unit | Price | ADR | Split | Net cash yield | + Appreciation | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pied-à-terre · 200 m² | $1.04M | ~$700 | 60/40 | ~5.7% | ~6 to 8% | ~12 to 14% |
| Family · 400 m² | $1.60M | ~$1,700 | 70/30 | ~10.5% | ~6 to 8% | ~16 to 18% |
Source: Strategy, Section 04 (Residence Hospitality & Owner Economics). Residence-hospitality ADR / occupancy / owner participation to be validated against Bali luxury-villa operators.
Surface area mapped, mitigants in place. The two largest risks are honest: the land is a forward acquisition not yet under LOI, and the membership ramp to ~830 by Year 5 must be built from a smaller documented pipeline.
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land not yet under LOI acquisition, title, price risk |
Medium | High | Gate 1. LOI + full diligence before any construction capital. Funds released only on clean HGB title, confirmed zoning (tourism sub-zone W), and price at/below target. Real PMA, not nominee: PT Third Spaces registered April 2025; NIB, NPWP, KKPR, SPPL issued. |
| Membership ramp falls short of ~830 by Y5 | Medium-High | High | The key operating risk, today's documented pipeline is materially smaller and must be built (founding-member EOIs exceed $1M to date). Pre-opening membership drive; founding-tier scarcity; corridor demand. Breakeven is only ~295 members, so the asset is profitable well below target. |
| Residence absorption below plan priced to comparables |
Medium | Medium | Priced to real comps; phased build against confirmed sales (no spec inventory); broker validation pre-launch. Branded-residence demand has softened island-wide (C9 Hotelworks: 1,600+ units on hold/canceled). Founders Reserve first-right-of-refusal seeds absorption. |
| Entitlement (PKKPR/PBG) or LP2B overlay delay | Medium | High | Pre-screen via OSS before land closing; tourism sub-zone (W) confirmed; counsel-led entitlement. Gated ahead of construction capital. |
| Construction cost inflation > 20% over plan | Medium | Medium | Fixed-price GMP contract with named GC; 20% contingency. Audited construction track record across the founding team. |
| Tax leakage VAT, CIT/final tax, PPnBM, cross-border |
Medium | Medium | Counsel sign-off; structure units to manage the PPnBM threshold; Singapore HoldCo over PT PMA for DTA substance. Modeled at ~$3M and ~3 to 4 pts of IRR (see Section 04). |
| FX volatility (USD / IDR) | Medium | Medium | Natural hedge: IDR-denominated construction cost and operating costs; USD pre-sale collection and investor distributions. USD pricing has drifted with IDR strength. |
| Foreign ownership / HGB tenure friction | Low | Medium | Standard HGB-via-PMA, deliverable because the land is held HGB freehold. Counsel-vetted purchase and resale agreements; members-only resale covenant. |
| Exit multiple compression / single-asset liquidity | Medium | Medium | Base uses 12× (a discount to Soho House's ~16×). The platform / a second market improves liquidity and supports multiple expansion. Co-invest priority for this round. |
| Key-person / founder dependence | Medium | Medium | Operating team and brand built; an execution partner reduces single-point dependence. Honest: the team has not yet exited a multi-property platform. |
Source: management risk register. Detail on land status in Section 06 above; tax structure in Section 04 above.